Sources and methods
Official count
The swine flu death count is updated with the latest official data regarding confirmed cases, deaths, and distribution by country released by the World Health Organization (WHO). For the USA, we also monitor the latest information and statistics provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
"Probable" vs "Confirmed" cases
In order to be officially counted, each case that has been preliminarily diagnosed as "probable" must be laboratory confirmed at a central level by WHO-approved laboratory tests as Swine Influenza A/H1N1. For the USA this means passing confirmatory testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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| Suspected Case
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| Probable Case
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| Confirmed Case
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| A suspected case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with acute febrile respiratory illness1 with onset
* within 7 days of close contact with a person who is a confirmed case of S-OIV infection, or
* within 7 days of travel to community either within the United States or internationally where there are one or more confirmed cases of S-OIV infection, or
* resides in a community where there are one or more confirmed cases of S-OIV infection.
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| A probable case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with an acute febrile respiratory illness1 who is positive for influenza A, but negative for H1 and H3 by influenza RT-PCR
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A confirmed case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with an acute febrile respiratory illness1 with laboratory confirmed S-OIV infection at CDC by one or more of the following tests:
1. real-time RT-PCR
2. viral culture
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1. acute febrile respiratory illness is defined as a measured temperature 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) and recent onset of at least one of the following: rhinorrhea or nasal congestion, sore throat, or cough.
Source: CDC Interim Guidance on Case Definitions for Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Cases
Time delay
Confirmatory testing results are usually produced within two days. This explains the time delay between the unofficial count of probable cases and the official count that is displayed here. We include only data that has been officially confirmed.
Comparison with the common flu
The three main seasonal flu strains (H3N2, H1N1 and type B) cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year globally (equivalent to 685 to 1,370 deaths per day) according to WHO.
However, the common flu normally affects the very young and the very old, whereas the majority of the swine flu cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. The unusual age group affected, the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, and the peculiarity of human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, makes the Influenza A (H1N1) "Swine Flu" particularly worrisome.
References and useful links
- Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic Alert and Response - WHO (World Health Organization) - monitors the threat of an influenza pandemic and coordinates the global response to human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1). Information on the evolving situation, technical guidelines, and up-to-date numbers of cases in the world.
- Swine Flu (CDC - U.S.A.) - Swine Influenza (Flu) website updated daily by the United States' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Lists the total number of laboratory confirmed cases and deaths caused by Swine Flu Infection in the USA, state by state.
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