"Returns to pre-lockdown mobility of 20% or 40% from current levels may lead to a resurgence of the epidemic with more deaths than the current wave in the absence of additional interventions" A second wave with 23,000 extra deaths in just 8 weeks could be possible in a scenario with a 40% increase in mobility, according to an Imperial College London study still awaiting peer review [comments] [full study Pdf]

After a few isolated cases detected in late January, the outbreak in Italy started on Feb. 21 [see archived news]. On  February 22, as Italy had already become the country with the highest number of cases among all non-Asian nations.11 towns and areas affected by the outbreak were placed in lockdown. A country-wide lockdown was implemented after 19 days, on March 11, when 827 deaths had already been reported. 

On February 27, Worldometer had calculated and reported that about 60% of new cases (31 out of 54) diagnosed in Europe outside of Italy from Feb. 24 to Feb. 27 had recently traveled to Northern Italy.

On February 28, the US CDC issued a travel warning to Italy: avoid all nonessential travel to Italy. [source]

  [see February archived news]

  [source] [source]